ROC Webster park event Analysis from O-scores

Official results are at the ROC web Page

Thanks to Steve Tylock for intense communication and for providing me with data for this analysis

NOTE: Data for Orange, Yellow and White course might be not reliable due to lack of data for intermediate and beginning ROC orienteers. It will become more reliable with time


Absolute All standings


Absolute Women standings



By course analysis is here

As always (!) and (!!) means 7.5% and 15% above the estimate for this runner, and (?), (??) correspondingly below.Additional mark {new} was added recently. It shows runners whose name mentioned first time this year and therefore their score is not reliable due to lack of data.

Terrain was on average  ~900 GV/km which usually means course was fast



Here is rolling ROC Ladies Ranking  (Unofficial, incomplete O-scores version, using only data I have available now)

Men ROC rolling rankings is here   (Unofficial, incomplete O-scores version, using only data I have available now)


Top performers are below:

Runner	Class	improve
Steven Tylock	M45+	15.1%
Karl Kolva	M85+	13.4%
Robert Bundy	M65+	12.5%
Patricia Lyons	F55+	11.1%
Lucas Lyons	M-10	9.1%

O-Scores calculation methodology

External links:

http://www.attackpoint.org/discussionthread.jsp/message_149323 discussion about GV calculation

Original Methology post at Geocities is no longer available and I do not know where it was moved.

http://www.geocities.com/nikdangerdvm/03methods.html - original write-up of the GV algorithm calculations.

Methodology was called by many people as cumbersome and I will try to explain here in my words.

I will quote the Methodology where applicable and explain practical application details.

Originally Adapted for USOF from Wyatt Riley's BAOC ranking rules, 1999.

One more time adapted by S. Krechetov 

Definitions:  

There are four items here and they all depend on each other. Must be consumed as a whole dish. Don’t get disappointed until done reading.

1. Runner Local Power (RLP)   = Race Gnarliness Value (GV) divided by Runners Time (RT)

RLPⁱ_r = GV_r /RTⁱ_r; where r is running over all races (1..N_R) and i is running over all runners (1.. N^I)

 Example: GV is 5000, your time was 1:40:00 or 100 minutes. Your  RLP for that race is 5000/100 = 50.

2. Runner Global Power  (RGP)   = plain average of Runner Local Power (RLP) over all races

RGPⁱ = 1/N_R*sum_r(RLPⁱ_r)

3. Runners Race Difficulty (RRD) =  Runner Global Power (RGP)  multiplied by  Runners Time (RT)

RRDⁱ_r = RGPⁱ*RT_r;

Example: If your RGP = 80, and your RT = 60 minutes, your RRD would be 80*60=4800

4. Race Gnarliness Value (GV)  =  harmonic average (reciprocal of  average of reciprocal values ) of Runners Race Difficulties (RRD) for all runners in current race

1/GV_r = 1/ N^I *sum_i(1/ RRDⁱ_r);

Example:

·         John  has  RGP = 100 and runs RACE in 30 min. (RRD = 100 * 30 = 3000)

·         Mary has  RGP = 60 and runs RACE in 100 min. (RRD = 60 * 100 = 6000)

·         1/ GV = ½ (1/(100*30) + 1/(60*100)) = 1/4000

Then

·         GV = 4000

Some observations:

• If you are on average twice as fast as somebody, you should end up with about twice their score.

Practical Implementation details.

• Input data for the algorithm are three columns: Person, Race and Time.  No other information is needed
• All valid finishes of the season are used. Valid finishes are times (not OT, DNF, MSP, etc...).
• Algorithm is recursive over items 1-4. Must be stopped after next iteration changes results by negligible amount.
• Initial conditions are Runner Local Power (RLP) which can be set to any positive nonzero number
• Algorithm converges to the same point independently on initial conditions. For simplicity  all runners can be given RLP  = 100 at first step
• Algorithm is linear relative to initial conditions. Meaning that if all initial  RLP are increased by factor F, the resulting GV, and RGP will be increased by the same factor.
• The only nontrivial output of the algorithm is set of GV, which is one number per race. The rest of the results can be immediately derived from GV and Runners Times (RT)
• At the last step, all RGP RGP, GV are normalized so that  1/ N^I*sum_i(RGPⁱ) = 50 and the rest of the quantities are changed proportionally.

Additional Notes

• Final RLPⁱ_r is score of the runner for this race. Using scores one can calculate various Ranking scores. (RS) characterizing performance of particular runner in this particular discipline.
• pick top 4 scores  and average them (No Tail)
• pick 4 scores and half of the rest and average them (Tail)
• pick only A meet scores and  perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• pick only A-meet Sprints and perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• Pick everything but Sprints and  perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• Pick only Extra Long races and  perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• Pick only races of this particular Color and perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• Pick only races organized by this particular club and perform Tail or No-Tail calculations
• Pick only A meet races and only one Color of Races, perform "Tail" calculation with them (USOF scores)

All above mentioned possibilities and more are implemented in the O-scores database interface

My JWOC team evaluation

here is the announcement:
===========================================
Annoucing the 2010 USA Junior World Orienteering Championship Team:

Males

Nathaniel Lyons ROC
Andrew Childs GMOC
Carl Underwood NEOC
Greg Ahlswede DVOA
Ethan Childs GMOC - declined
Keith Andersen USMAOC

1st Alternate - John H. Williams GAOC
2nd Alternate - John Goodwin UNO


Females

Hnnah Burgess USMAOC
Alison Campbell DVOA
Holly Kuestner COC


Congratulation to all of you and the best of luck in Denmark!

Janet Porter, USA Junior Team Administrator
Jeff Saegar, USA Junior Team Coach
Scott Drumm, USOF VP of Competition
==========================================

According to the O-scores the A-meet ratings are as follows

Nathaniel Lyons ROC  (M-18), 123.8
Andrew Childs GMOC (M-18), 122.1
Carl Underwood NEOC  (M-16), 120.6
Greg Ahlswede DVOA (M-20), 116.1
Ethan Childs GMOC -(M-16), 114.8
Keith Andersen USMAOC (M-20), 110.5

1st Alternate - John H. Williams GAOC,  (M-18), 110.6
2nd Alternate - John Goodwin UNO (M-20), 108.6

So it looks like the sorted sequence is about right.
Cutoff is at level of 108.

Who is missing?

Erik Nystrom ,  (M-20),  136.8 Very solid performance, not too many races (not a citizen?)
Jaxon Rickel (M-16), at 123.7 Solid performance, not too many long races

Jordan Laughlin  (M-20), 119.0 Solid Blue performance, many races (YB 1989..)

Huw Stradling ,  (M-18), 113.2  Shaky performance, one good event year ago (West point), not too many races


I think absence of Erik Nystrom in the team is a definite big loss, but according to Drew he is not a citizen, pity.

Females:

Hannah Burgess USMAOC, (F-20), 95.9
Alison Campbell DVOA (F-20), 98.1
Holly Kuestner COC (F-20), 95.6


Potential Possibilities Missed?
Tori Borish, (F-20), 90.0

My comment at Attackpoint to the US Middle Champs discussion

I will use this point in the discussion to promote one more time my O-scores database system for those who didn't paid enough attention to it yet.

The system allowed me to predict Jaxon as a top runner some time ago  when he had not enough meets to be A-ranked and was running orange.

O-scores is designed specially for those beginners who would like to evaluate themselves immediately and know how they stand to big guys on absolute scale. Doesn't matter what color or what level or event you are running.
I'm still waiting for feet to find time to perform a stress test which will confirm and validate system independently.

In the meantime shows that our best M-16 is still Carl Underwood with Jaxon trailing very close (~125) (link above). And also it shows that they both would beat or  match Sergey Velichko and Joseph Brautigam being top M45+'ers (also ~125) (flip age class drop down).

Of course system would require more adequate data stream from local clubs in order to notice local stars and bring them to light. I'm working with event organizers on getting the data, but so far not many of them got interested, event though all what it cost is sending me CSV SportIdent export file.
I wonder, why?

We keep saying that we need to increase population, do this and do that and at the same time refuse to take somebodie's time and efforts to "start-up" some project, even thought to many it might seem useless, but is it harmfull?

Flying Pig Top Performers

Runner	Class	Event Score	Power	improve
Noah Dixon	M-16	48.4	37.8	28.0%
Eric Collins	M-16	51.2	41.3	24.0%
Mathew Rogers	M-16	80.2	64.8	23.8%
Nikolay Glukhov	M60+	81	67.5	20.0%
Melvin Turman	M-18	95.6	79.7	19.9%
Tom Nolan	M55+	101.8	85.2	19.5%
Steve Ohrwaschel	M50+	45.4	38.3	18.5%
Stephen Shannonhouse	M65+	54	45.7	18.2%
John Barrett	M-10	54.1	46.2	17.1%
Ricardo Martinez	M-18	69.9	59.8	16.9%
Chris Svoboda	M50+	84.9	72.8	16.6%
Jeff Collins	M	49.9	43	16.0%
Zachary Lyons	M-14	94.5	81.8	15.5%
Mary Hamilton	F-20	74.7	64.7	15.5%
Adam White	M-20	74.8	64.9	15.3%
Andrew Spencer	M-18	74.6	64.8	15.1%
Chase Thatcher	M-14	78.7	68.5	14.9%
Michael Jones	M45+	36.6	32.1	14.0%
Robert Kaczorowski	M-18	57.5	50.5	13.9%
Lucas Lyons	M-10	63.8	56.1	13.7%
Carl Bridges	M45+	68.5	60.9	12.5%
Sarah Rogers	F-18	65.3	58.1	12.4%
Tracy Whelen	F-16	69.1	61.6	12.2%
Johnathan Brittain	M-18	48.1	43	11.9%
Phil Martineau	M60+	52.9	47.3	11.8%
Louis Pataki	M65+	32.6	29.4	10.9%
Eric Bone	M35+	135.5	122.2	10.9%
Bob Lux	M60+	103.2	93.1	10.8%
Taylor Sneed	M-18	55.2	49.8	10.8%
Jim Eagleton	M55+	73.7	66.6	10.7%
Seth Bearjar	M	38.6	34.9	10.6%
Charlie Shahbazian	M55+	104.4	94.5	10.5%
Dakotah Hogan	M-18	50.9	46.1	10.4%
Hilary Ratliff	F-16	64.3	58.3	10.3%
Michael Howard	M-18	47.6	43.2	10.2%
Glen Tryson	M55+	101.9	92.5	10.2%

Flying Pig XIV analysis

Official results are at the OCIN web site

There were 32 course offered 10 first day and 11 +11 two following days
In addition to standard WYOBrGRB, there were off-color courses for IS champs. Effectivelly YOBrG were split on two.
I named standard colors as X and off-colors as Y


Here is my analysis.

Absolute All standings


Patrick Goeres (M-21+), Coureurs de Bois *148.8*(1)
Jon Torrance (M35+), OOC *137.6*(2)
Eric Bone (M35+), COC *135.4*(3)
......
Alison Campbell (F-20), DVOA *95.4*(34)

Absolute Women standings 

Alison Campbell (F-20), DVOA *95.4*(1)Corinne Porter (F-21+), DVOA *85.5*(2)
Maiya Anderson (F35+), RMOC *80.1*(3) 

By course analysis is here

Do not forget to look for interesting subset of by course analysis ( All Women )
As always (!) and (!!) means 7.5% and 15% above the estimate for this runner, and (?), (??) correspondingly below.
Additional mark {new} was added recently. It shows runners whose name mentioned first time this year and therefore their score is not reliable due to lack of data.

Terrain was on average @ 1000 GV/km (it took 10 minutes for 100 point runner to get through each nominal km of the race)

Absolute standings analysis:

Interesting is that Jaxon Rickel again was ver close to the top in absolute rankings - overall 6th place running Green.
Greg Ahlswede running Red  is the top Red runner and 7th overall

Joe Barrett (M-14), PTOC *100.3*(27) running Orange and some Green is top Orange runner and 27th overall

Alison Campbell (F-20), DVOA running Brown and some red is the top Brown runner and 34th overall

Zachary Lyons (M-14), ROC *94.4*(36) running Yellow and some Orange is top Yellow runner and 36th overall. Notice that Zach is very stable and didn't lost any point running Orange and not Yellow. This is very promising fact

Top White runner is Lucas Lyons (M-10), ROC *63.8*(128) and 128th overall


Women standings analysis:

Alison Campbell (F-20), DVOA *95.4*(1) is the fastest by far, running combination of Brown and Red. Red performance was worse than Brown, but this can not be attributed to the length of the course, as it was about the same difficulty  (GV=4200) as both browns

Top Red runner is Corinne Porter (F-21+), DVOA *85.5*(2)  and 2nd overall, almost 10 points behind Alison

Top Green runner is Elena Logvina (F40+), GHO *79.7*(4)

and 4th overall

Top Orange runner is Katie Williams (F-16), OCIN *70.7*(10) 10th overall

Top yellow runner is Nikki Singley (F-16), DVOA *65.6*(16),  16th overall
Nikki tried Orange during the event.

Top white runner Julia Doubson (F-10), BAOC *56.4*(29) was 29th overall


Here is updated Women A-series rankings
Here is updated  Men A-series Rankings

Enjoy.

Gateway Grunt A-meet review

Official standings are at the Carol's Team site
Here is my analysis.

Absolute All standings

Andy Dale (M40+), ECKO (currently 40th in overall standings)
Kevin Teschendorf (M50+), BGR (currently 134th in overall standings, not qualified)
Maricel Olaru (M-21+), CAOC (currently 44th in overall standings)  ....
(22) Anna Shafer-Skelton (F-21+),

Absolute Women standings 

Anna Shafer-Skelton (F-21+), SLOC *84.4*(1) (currently 40th in overall standings, not qualified)
Linda Danskanen (F), SLOC *78.9*(2) (currently 52nd in overall standings, not qualified)
Natalia Deconescu (F55+), CAOC *74.9*(3) (currently 22nd in overall standings)




By course analysis is here
As always (!) and (!!) means 7.5% and 15% above the estimate for this runner, and (?), (??) correspondingly below.
Additional mark {new} was added recently. It shows runners whose name mentioned first time this year and therefore their score is not reliable due to lack of data.

Blue/Red Sprint results uneventful. Sprint terrain was simple @ 500 GV/km

Blue Middle terrain was almost twice slower that Sprint (870 GV/km)
Red Middle as about the same speed-wise
Arvid Jasper and James Mullin can be mentioned as best performers

Green-to-Orange Sprint was  about the same speed-wise as Blue Sprint (500)
There was number of significant errors and Improvement by runners with !! and ??

Green Middle produced TOO many exceptional results in both positive and negative directions. Apparently there was something tricky.  Same can be said about Brown. and  Fundraiser Sprint.
Anybody  who participated can comment?

Extreme performers are below

Runner	Class	Club	improve
Bruce Metz	M55+	CAOC	17.6%
Judith Martineau	F50+	MNOC	17.1%
Richard Gaylord	M65+	CAOC	13.7%
Fran Armstrong	F60+	SLOC	12.9%
Charlie Bleau	M50+	GAOC	12.6%
John Barrett	M-10	PTOC	10.9%
Natalia Deconescu	F55+	CAOC	-10.1%
Joseph Sackett	M45+	CAOC	-12.0%
Joe Barrett	M-14	PTOC	-12.1%
Valerie Metz	F50+	CAOC	-12.3%
George Minarik	M60+	BAOC	-13.4%
Lukas Lamb	M	SLOC	-15.3%
Pilar Williamsen	M	SLOC	-16.6%
Roddy Wares	F60+	SMOC	-17.0%
Nancy Neuburger	F65+	PTOC	-17.9%
Rachel Furman	F	SLOC	-20.9%

Enjoy.